Quaest poll: With 46%, Lula opens 13-point lead and has chances to win in 1st round

This Wednesday (28), Quaest released a new survey on the presidential race. According to the institute, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) is leading the election with 46%, and current president Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), who is running for reelection, has 33% of voting intention. 

According to Quaest data, Lula has a larger percentage than the sum of his adversaries, who accounts for 45%. It points out a possible victory in the first round.  

The third most supported candidate is former minister Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party), who now has 6% of voting intention and is in a virtual tie with senator Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement), who has 5%. Senator Soraia Thronicke (Brazil Union) has 1%. The other candidates did not score. Voters who do not know which candidate to vote for are 5% of the electorate. Voters who choose to cast a blank ballot (known in Brazil as “votar em branco”) or to spoil their ballots are 4% of the people interviewed.  

The poll interviewed 2,000 people between September 24 and 27, ordered by Genial Bank. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. It is registered in the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE, in Portuguese) under the protocol BR-04371/2022.

Previous Quaest poll 

In Quest’s poll released last Wednesday (21), Lula had 44% of voting intention, a positive oscillation of two percentage points compared to the previous poll. Jair Bolsonaro remained at the same level, with 34%.

The opponents of the Workers’ Party candidate have a total of 46% of voting intention, that is, a virtual tie with the former president. This situation points out uncertainty about whether or not to hold a second round in the presidential race. 

Edited by: Nicolau Soares e Flávia Chacon